Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
