Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
